Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.7% vs 55.9%). Look for Dvorak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 58.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 56.0% vs Stepan 54.8% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 57.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 52.6%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 58.8%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Dvorak
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dvorak
Stepan
Last 6: Dvorak 4-2 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
0
Dvorak
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Dvorak
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (714)
54.5% (374)
+1.2%
Power Play
61.1% (131)
0.0% (2)
+61.1%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (122)
64.7% (68)
-7.3%
On power play, Dvorak has a +61.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Dvorak is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Dvorak shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Stepan
Home
59.0% (432)
54.5% (222)
Away
54.8% (535)
57.2% (222)
By Period
Dvorak
Stepan
P1
58.7%
57.5%
P2
53.9%
54.7%
P3
57.2%
55.9%
Final 5 min
54.0%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
56.7%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 16:49 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 06:55 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 03:11 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |