Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 55.3% vs Hughes 39.2% (+18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 88.5%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 68.8%
Neutral zone
Hughes 57.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 68.8%
31.2%
68.8%
Dvorak
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Dvorak
Hughes
Last 8: Dvorak 3-5 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
2
Dvorak
Hughes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
3
Dvorak
Hughes
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (857)
37.9% (623)
+18.5%
Power Play
69.0% (29)
33.3% (33)
+35.7%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (174)
36.4% (11)
+14.2%
On power play, Dvorak has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Dvorak is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Dvorak shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hughes
Home
55.1% (501)
36.6% (314)
Away
56.4% (559)
38.5% (353)
By Period
Dvorak
Hughes
P1
55.8%
36.4%
P2
52.5%
35.6%
P3
58.2%
41.8%
OT
63.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
55.8%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:46 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:02 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:28 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 18:31 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 15:29 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:38 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |