Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 81.5%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 87.6%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 77.9%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Dvorak
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Dvorak
Carlsson
Last 8: Dvorak 6-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
0
Dvorak
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
4
0
Dvorak
Carlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
2
Dvorak
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
45.5% (661)
+8.2%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
46.3% (82)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
33.3% (84)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Dvorak shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Carlsson
Home
53.6% (461)
42.5% (428)
Away
52.9% (507)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Dvorak
Carlsson
P1
54.1%
45.4%
P2
52.9%
39.7%
P3
53.8%
48.5%
OT
36.4%
41.7%
Final 5 min
46.3%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:46 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:26 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 06:42 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 15:17 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |