Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Dvorak wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 52.9% vs Frost 55.7% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 77.3%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 62.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 58.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Dvorak
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dvorak
Frost
Last 5: Dvorak 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
2
Dvorak
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
0
Dvorak
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (762)
54.9% (701)
-1.2%
Power Play
54.0% (124)
60.8% (166)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (82)
100.0% (5)
-52.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +52.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Dvorak is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Dvorak shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Frost
Home
53.6% (461)
56.0% (443)
Away
52.9% (507)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Dvorak
Frost
P1
54.1%
58.9%
P2
52.9%
55.3%
P3
53.8%
54.0%
OT
36.4%
70.0%
Final 5 min
46.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
53.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 14:29 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |