Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 44.7%). Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Schwindt wins 36.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwindt 46.8% vs Thompson 45.3% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 59.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 63.7%
Neutral zone
Thompson 61.2%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Schwindt
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Schwindt
Thompson
Last 8: Schwindt 3-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwindt
1
0
Schwindt
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Schwindt
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Schwindt
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwindt
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (122)
44.9% (642)
-1.5%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
47.9% (94)
+27.1%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
33.3% (33)
+11.1%
On power play, Schwindt has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Schwindt is 36.8% vs right-shot opponents (57).
Schwindt shoots right. Thompson is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Schwindt
Thompson
Home
40.3% (77)
46.0% (391)
Away
50.0% (58)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Schwindt
Thompson
P1
47.6%
48.1%
P2
42.9%
44.9%
P3
43.2%
41.2%
Final 5 min
51.3%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwindt
44.0%▼
47.0%
44.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 07:26 | Offensive | Cole Schwindt |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 05:01 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Neutral | Cole Schwindt |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Neutral | Cole Schwindt |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |