Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.7% vs 48.2%). Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Schwindt wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwindt 49.0% vs Gourde 48.2% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwindt 64.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 64.6%
Neutral zone
Gourde 55.8%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Schwindt
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Schwindt
Gourde
Last 6: Schwindt 2-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Schwindt
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
3
Schwindt
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwindt
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (370)
48.4% (4,954)
-0.3%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
57.4% (376)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (16)
39.9% (554)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, Schwindt has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Schwindt is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Schwindt shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Schwindt
Gourde
Home
45.5% (213)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
52.5% (179)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Schwindt
Gourde
P1
51.8%
49.9%
P2
48.6%
47.4%
P3
46.2%
47.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwindt
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 16:06 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 18:51 | Neutral | Cole Schwindt |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 15:03 | Neutral | Cole Schwindt |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 10:15 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 12:39 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 07:12 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |