Scouting Report
Colin White holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). White wins 44.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
White 45.4% vs Novak 43.3% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 66.4%
Defensive zone
White 58.9%
Neutral zone
Novak 52.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
White
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
White
Novak
Last 7: White 3-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: White
1
0
White
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
2
4
White
Novak
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
White
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (2,090)
42.1% (1,539)
+2.5%
Power Play
51.2% (242)
51.9% (133)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (40)
50.0% (2)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. White is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,692).
White shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
White
Novak
Home
46.2% (1,138)
45.3% (814)
Away
44.2% (1,234)
40.6% (860)
By Period
White
Novak
P1
45.9%
43.9%
P2
44.6%
42.8%
P3
45.3%
41.7%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
White
34.0%▼
40.0%
45.2%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:40 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 14:14 | Neutral | Colin White |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 11:54 | Defensive | Colin White |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 12:56 | Neutral | Colin White |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |