Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs McBain 50.9% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 56.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 66.9%
Neutral zone
McBain 73.5%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 64.7%
35.3%
64.7%
Bedard
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Bedard
McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
McBain
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
52.1% (545)
-7.9%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
57.1% (14)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
37.0% (46)
+16.8%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. McBain is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Bedard
McBain
Home
50.7% (223)
52.2% (289)
Away
42.2% (270)
50.0% (316)
By Period
Bedard
McBain
P1
40.8%
52.6%
P2
48.2%
53.6%
P3
48.0%
47.1%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | OT | 02:24 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:33 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Jack McBain |