Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Bedard wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Stenlund 54.3% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 84.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 60.1%
Neutral zone
Bedard 60.7%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Bedard
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Bedard
Stenlund
Last 8: Bedard 3-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
5
Bedard
Stenlund
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
56.1% (615)
-11.9%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
53.2% (47)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
52.1% (307)
+1.7%
On power play, Bedard has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Bedard is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Bedard shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Bedard
Stenlund
Home
50.7% (223)
57.0% (458)
Away
42.2% (270)
52.6% (511)
By Period
Bedard
Stenlund
P1
40.8%
55.1%
P2
48.2%
53.3%
P3
48.0%
56.4%
OT
57.1%
42.1%
Final 5 min
45.3%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 09:08 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |