Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs McLeod 49.6% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 74.0%
Defensive zone
McLeod 88.7%
Neutral zone
McLeod 86.4%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 80.8%
19.2%
80.8%
Bedard
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Bedard
McLeod
Last 8: Bedard 6-2 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
0
Bedard
McLeod
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
50.4% (3,345)
-10.3%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
51.0% (292)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
44.3% (635)
+5.7%
On even strength, McLeod has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. McLeod is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,490).
Home / Away
Bedard
McLeod
Home
43.3% (785)
50.2% (2,158)
Away
38.5% (896)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Bedard
McLeod
P1
39.0%
50.8%
P2
40.7%
48.4%
P3
42.6%
50.0%
OT
42.9%
37.1%
Final 5 min
44.9%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:20 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 11:31 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |