Scouting Report
Sam Bennett holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bennett on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Bennett shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Bennett 48.3% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 59.2%
Defensive zone
Bedard 74.8%
Neutral zone
Bedard 64.0%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Bedard
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Bedard
Bennett
Last 6: Bedard 1-5 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
1
0
Bedard
Bennett
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
3
Bedard
Bennett
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
2
Bedard
Bennett
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
46.4% (780)
-2.2%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
57.3% (150)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
47.8% (46)
+6.0%
On power play, Bedard has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. Bennett is 54.6% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Bedard
Bennett
Home
50.7% (223)
50.3% (519)
Away
42.2% (270)
45.7% (457)
By Period
Bedard
Bennett
P1
40.8%
47.5%
P2
48.2%
46.6%
P3
48.0%
49.8%
OT
57.1%
70.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:52 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 04:41 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |