Scouting Report
Sam Bennett holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Bennett on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Bennett shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Bennett 47.2% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 68.2%
Defensive zone
Bedard 82.5%
Neutral zone
Bedard 72.3%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 77.5%
77.5%
22.5%
Bedard
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Bedard
Bennett
Last 7: Bedard 2-5 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
1
0
Bedard
Bennett
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
1
3
Bedard
Bennett
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
2
Bedard
Bennett
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
46.8% (5,683)
-6.7%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
53.7% (555)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
41.8% (256)
+8.2%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Bennett is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,262).
Home / Away
Bedard
Bennett
Home
43.3% (785)
48.4% (3,262)
Away
38.5% (896)
45.9% (3,232)
By Period
Bedard
Bennett
P1
39.0%
48.0%
P2
40.7%
46.5%
P3
42.6%
46.9%
OT
42.9%
52.5%
Final 5 min
44.9%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:52 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 04:41 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 04:23 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |