Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Aho 51.2% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Bedard leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 77.5%
Defensive zone
Bedard 53.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 65.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Bedard
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Bedard
Aho
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Bedard
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
1
Bedard
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
2
Bedard
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
50.1% (6,619)
-10.0%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
58.9% (1,310)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
46.3% (464)
+3.7%
On even strength, Aho has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Bedard
Aho
Home
43.3% (785)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
38.5% (896)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Bedard
Aho
P1
39.0%
51.1%
P2
40.7%
52.0%
P3
42.6%
50.7%
OT
42.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
44.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:37 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 14:02 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:05 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:21 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |