Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Aho 54.9% (-17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 77.3%
Defensive zone
Bedard 62.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Bedard
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bedard
Aho
Last 5: Bedard 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Bedard
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
1
0
Bedard
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
54.5% (870)
-16.5%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
62.4% (266)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
37.1% (62)
+20.0%
On power play, Aho has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Bedard
Aho
Home
40.5% (316)
53.9% (603)
Away
36.2% (340)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Bedard
Aho
P1
37.2%
54.1%
P2
36.9%
55.0%
P3
40.7%
57.4%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.4%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:37 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |