Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Rodrigues shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Rodrigues 46.3% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 58.3%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 54.9%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 51.2%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
McDavid
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McDavid
Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Rodrigues
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Rodrigues
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
46.9% (525)
-0.6%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
48.1% (54)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
33.3% (57)
+19.3%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. McDavid is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (187).
McDavid shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
McDavid
Rodrigues
Home
49.8% (325)
46.3% (354)
Away
44.6% (316)
45.0% (282)
By Period
McDavid
Rodrigues
P1
46.2%
47.7%
P2
48.6%
46.0%
P3
47.1%
43.2%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |