Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 46.4%). McDavid wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Sourdif 47.1% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 70.6%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 53.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 65.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
McDavid
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McDavid
Sourdif
Last 5: McDavid 4-1 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Sourdif
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
45.8% (432)
+0.5%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
52.6% (19)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
60.0% (10)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. McDavid is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (187).
McDavid shoots left. Sourdif is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Home / Away
McDavid
Sourdif
Home
49.8% (325)
45.5% (235)
Away
44.6% (316)
47.3% (226)
By Period
McDavid
Sourdif
P1
46.2%
46.4%
P2
48.6%
41.4%
P3
47.1%
52.5%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Sourdif
44.0%▲
42.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 02:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |