Connor McDavid vs Justin Sourdif
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Sourdif 45.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 83.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 60.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 72.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
McDavid
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McDavid
Sourdif
Last 5: McDavid 4-1 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Sourdif
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
44.6% (556)
+3.1%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
50.0% (24)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
61.5% (13)
-18.1%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
McDavid
Sourdif
Home
49.3% (4,570)
43.6% (321)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
47.1% (272)
By Period
McDavid
Sourdif
P1
46.5%
43.1%
P2
48.7%
43.9%
P3
48.3%
48.6%
OT
40.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.1%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 02:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |