Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Couture on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Couture 47.6% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.6%
Defensive zone
Couture 63.4%
Neutral zone
Couture 53.0%
Result
Logan Couture favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
McDavid
Couture
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
McDavid
Couture
Last 9: McDavid 4-5 Couture
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Couture
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Couture
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couture
2
4
McDavid
Couture
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Couture
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
49.2% (1,083)
+2.3%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
56.7% (60)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
35.4% (206)
+15.8%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couture shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Couture is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (857).
Home / Away
McDavid
Couture
Home
50.7% (513)
49.6% (713)
Away
53.2% (498)
45.0% (636)
By Period
McDavid
Couture
P1
52.3%
47.2%
P2
51.6%
45.0%
P3
51.7%
50.0%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Couture
42.0%▼
53.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 04:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 1 | 02:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Logan Couture |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Logan Couture |