Connor McDavid vs Macklin Celebrini
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Macklin Celebrini holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.6% vs Celebrini 49.4% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 52.9%
Defensive zone
Celebrini 53.0%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 53.5%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
McDavid
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
McDavid
Celebrini
Last 7: McDavid 5-2 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
1
McDavid
Celebrini
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Celebrini
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Celebrini
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (540)
48.3% (717)
-2.0%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
54.9% (91)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
61.9% (21)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. McDavid is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (454).
McDavid shoots left. Celebrini is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Home / Away
McDavid
Celebrini
Home
49.8% (325)
47.3% (412)
Away
44.6% (316)
51.3% (417)
By Period
McDavid
Celebrini
P1
46.2%
45.6%
P2
48.6%
50.9%
P3
47.1%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.3%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.3%
Celebrini
44.0%▼
52.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |