Connor McDavid vs Macklin Celebrini
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.5%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Celebrini 48.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 15-9 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Celebrini 50.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.3%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 50.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
McDavid
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
9
(24 meetings)
15
9
McDavid
Celebrini
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
4
McDavid
Celebrini
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
3
McDavid
Celebrini
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
2
McDavid
Celebrini
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
47.7% (1,825)
+0.0%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
53.8% (247)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
55.6% (36)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Celebrini is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,444).
Home / Away
McDavid
Celebrini
Home
49.3% (4,570)
47.7% (1,076)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
49.4% (1,032)
By Period
McDavid
Celebrini
P1
46.5%
47.2%
P2
48.7%
46.9%
P3
48.3%
51.5%
OT
40.9%
47.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |