Connor McDavid vs Macklin Celebrini
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Macklin Celebrini holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.7% vs Celebrini 48.8% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Celebrini 52.9%
Defensive zone
Celebrini 51.9%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 52.6%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
McDavid
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
McDavid
Celebrini
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
2
McDavid
Celebrini
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Celebrini
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
2
McDavid
Celebrini
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (8,248)
47.7% (1,618)
-0.1%
Power Play
52.8% (362)
54.8% (230)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (274)
59.4% (32)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,803).
McDavid shoots left. Celebrini is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,306).
Home / Away
McDavid
Celebrini
Home
49.3% (4,495)
47.5% (965)
Away
46.1% (4,389)
50.1% (915)
By Period
McDavid
Celebrini
P1
46.4%
46.1%
P2
48.7%
48.4%
P3
48.3%
51.6%
OT
40.9%
47.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.7%
Celebrini
44.0%▼
52.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 15:48 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 03:41 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |