Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs McLeod 59.6% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 51.0%
Defensive zone
McLeod 87.3%
Neutral zone
McLeod 82.2%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
McDavid
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
McDavid
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
61.5% (792)
-10.0%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
65.2% (23)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
55.6% (153)
-4.4%
On even strength, McLeod has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. McLeod is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (720).
Home / Away
McDavid
McLeod
Home
50.7% (513)
62.0% (460)
Away
53.2% (498)
59.4% (508)
By Period
McDavid
McLeod
P1
52.3%
61.5%
P2
51.6%
63.6%
P3
51.7%
56.2%
OT
100.0%
73.3%
Final 5 min
56.5%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 09:14 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 15:15 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 19:02 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |