Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 47.5%). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Kapanen 47.8% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 52.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
McDavid
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Kapanen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
47.5% (514)
+0.0%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
55.0% (40)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
39.5% (38)
+7.0%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Kapanen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kapanen
Home
50.2% (400)
47.9% (307)
Away
44.7% (365)
47.0% (285)
By Period
McDavid
Kapanen
P1
47.5%
42.7%
P2
48.6%
51.4%
P3
46.7%
48.4%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 05:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |