Connor McDavid vs Oliver Kapanen
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 47.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Kapanen 47.5% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 57.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
McDavid
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Kapanen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
47.2% (559)
+0.5%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
51.0% (51)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
39.5% (38)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Kapanen is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kapanen
Home
49.3% (4,570)
47.1% (340)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
47.1% (308)
By Period
McDavid
Kapanen
P1
46.5%
42.7%
P2
48.7%
50.2%
P3
48.3%
48.2%
OT
40.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.1%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 05:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |