Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.2% vs Stastny 54.6% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 77.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 78.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
McDavid
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
McDavid
Stastny
Last 6: McDavid 1-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
McDavid
Stastny
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
4
McDavid
Stastny
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (855)
54.8% (1,130)
-13.4%
Power Play
47.8% (23)
59.1% (235)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (31)
49.3% (150)
-13.8%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. McDavid is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
McDavid shoots left. Stastny is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (947).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stastny
Home
42.8% (451)
55.5% (803)
Away
40.0% (458)
54.2% (712)
By Period
McDavid
Stastny
P1
38.0%
57.4%
P2
44.9%
52.5%
P3
41.7%
54.3%
OT
20.0%
69.6%
Final 5 min
47.9%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.4%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 13:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 1 | 11:10 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 21, 2017 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 21, 2017 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 21, 2017 | 2 | 06:55 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |