Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Stastny 55.4% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 58.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 58.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
McDavid
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McDavid
Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
2
McDavid
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
McDavid
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
59.2% (370)
-4.9%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
40.9% (44)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
51.7% (58)
-18.4%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stastny
Home
53.6% (507)
57.7% (215)
Away
53.8% (539)
55.6% (257)
By Period
McDavid
Stastny
P1
52.6%
57.7%
P2
54.1%
54.2%
P3
54.9%
57.7%
OT
44.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 12:59 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |