Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Stastny 56.3% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 82.0%
Defensive zone
Stastny 53.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 63.8%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
McDavid
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
McDavid
Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Stastny
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
57.5% (412)
-6.0%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
60.0% (65)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
44.4% (9)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Stastny is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stastny
Home
50.7% (513)
58.3% (276)
Away
53.2% (498)
56.7% (210)
By Period
McDavid
Stastny
P1
52.3%
63.7%
P2
51.6%
57.3%
P3
51.7%
50.4%
Final 5 min
56.5%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 05:27 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |