Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Rakell 41.7% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 65.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 74.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 61.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
McDavid
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Rakell
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
36.8% (114)
+10.7%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
42.3% (26)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
0.0% (7)
+46.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +46.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Rakell is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (90).
Home / Away
McDavid
Rakell
Home
50.2% (400)
41.2% (68)
Away
44.7% (365)
31.6% (79)
By Period
McDavid
Rakell
P1
47.5%
34.5%
P2
48.6%
38.5%
P3
46.7%
33.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Rakell
40.0%▲
37.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 02:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |