Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). McDavid wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 43.9% vs Johansen 54.3% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 86.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 80.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 78.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
McDavid
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
McDavid
Johansen
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
McDavid
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Johansen
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
6
McDavid
Johansen
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (750)
54.0% (1,251)
-10.7%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
58.9% (158)
-18.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (31)
55.6% (63)
-13.7%
On power play, Johansen has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. McDavid is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (331).
McDavid shoots left. Johansen is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,042).
Home / Away
McDavid
Johansen
Home
48.7% (413)
56.3% (746)
Away
37.4% (393)
52.8% (726)
By Period
McDavid
Johansen
P1
38.8%
54.0%
P2
46.8%
53.8%
P3
44.2%
55.7%
OT
45.5%
59.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
43.2%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 1 | 04:55 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 2 | 02:57 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 1 | 04:21 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 20, 2017 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 20, 2017 | 3 | 00:56 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2017 | 2 | 02:51 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 20, 2017 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |