Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Johansen 52.4% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 54.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 51.4%
Neutral zone
Johansen 53.3%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
McDavid
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McDavid
Johansen
Last 7: McDavid 3-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
McDavid
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
3
McDavid
Johansen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
49.4% (1,010)
+4.9%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
62.3% (236)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
67.2% (67)
-33.9%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +33.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. Johansen is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Home / Away
McDavid
Johansen
Home
53.6% (507)
54.7% (655)
Away
53.8% (539)
50.6% (658)
By Period
McDavid
Johansen
P1
52.6%
52.2%
P2
54.1%
50.7%
P3
54.9%
54.8%
OT
44.4%
53.6%
Final 5 min
52.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 07:40 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 27, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 05:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |