Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Compher on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McMichael wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Compher 45.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 71.6%
Defensive zone
Compher 52.7%
Neutral zone
McMichael 63.8%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
McMichael
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McMichael
Compher
Last 7: McMichael 2-5 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Compher
0
1
McMichael
Compher
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
1
4
McMichael
Compher
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Compher
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
45.5% (782)
-2.1%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
44.2% (77)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
41.7% (180)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Compher has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. McMichael is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (281).
McMichael shoots left. Compher is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Home / Away
McMichael
Compher
Home
42.1% (444)
44.0% (484)
Away
42.8% (428)
45.4% (555)
By Period
McMichael
Compher
P1
42.5%
46.2%
P2
41.9%
44.8%
P3
42.5%
44.2%
OT
100.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 10:35 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |