Connor McMichael vs Jake Guentzel
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Guentzel 47.4% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 64.8%
Defensive zone
McMichael 81.6%
Neutral zone
McMichael 59.7%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
McMichael
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McMichael
Guentzel
Last 8: McMichael 3-5 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
McMichael
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Guentzel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McMichael
Guentzel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
49.0% (200)
-6.6%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
42.3% (111)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
45.8% (24)
-5.2%
On power play, McMichael has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Guentzel is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
McMichael
Guentzel
Home
43.0% (298)
48.8% (166)
Away
42.5% (252)
44.4% (169)
By Period
McMichael
Guentzel
P1
46.5%
46.7%
P2
41.1%
48.5%
P3
41.3%
44.3%
Final 5 min
44.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:08 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |