Connor McMichael vs Jonathan Toews
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +18.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Toews 60.3% (-18.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 87.7%
Defensive zone
Toews 58.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 81.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
McMichael
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McMichael
Toews
Last 5: McMichael 3-2 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
McMichael
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
3
0
McMichael
Toews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
62.5% (696)
-20.1%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
59.6% (141)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
46.9% (32)
-6.3%
On even strength, Toews has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Home / Away
McMichael
Toews
Home
43.0% (298)
60.9% (435)
Away
42.5% (252)
62.0% (434)
By Period
McMichael
Toews
P1
46.5%
59.8%
P2
41.1%
65.7%
P3
41.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
44.0%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:51 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |