Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Eller 55.7% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 63.6%
Defensive zone
McMichael 66.8%
Neutral zone
McMichael 65.8%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
McMichael
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McMichael
Eller
Last 6: McMichael 2-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Eller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Eller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
3
McMichael
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
56.5% (434)
-14.1%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
77.8% (9)
-28.7%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
56.5% (46)
-15.9%
On power play, Eller has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
McMichael
Eller
Home
43.0% (298)
53.1% (211)
Away
42.5% (252)
59.7% (278)
By Period
McMichael
Eller
P1
46.5%
55.4%
P2
41.1%
58.1%
P3
41.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
44.0%
60.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:03 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:55 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:47 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |