Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Eller 50.5% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
McMichael leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 56.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 77.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 70.8%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
McMichael
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
McMichael
Eller
Last 10: McMichael 5-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
3
0
McMichael
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
3
2
McMichael
Eller
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
2
5
McMichael
Eller
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (1,574)
51.1% (10,296)
-8.0%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
52.8% (621)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (167)
46.7% (1,751)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. McMichael is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
McMichael shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Home / Away
McMichael
Eller
Home
42.6% (976)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
43.3% (904)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
McMichael
Eller
P1
43.3%
51.2%
P2
43.2%
50.1%
P3
41.9%
50.2%
OT
75.0%
56.7%
Final 5 min
42.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:03 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:55 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:47 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 05:30 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 09:56 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 14:52 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 07:22 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 07:14 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 18:54 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |