Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Carlsson 45.0% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 75.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 52.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 66.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
McMichael
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
McMichael
Carlsson
Last 5: McMichael 5-0 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Carlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
4
0
McMichael
Carlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
45.5% (661)
-3.1%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
46.3% (82)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
33.3% (84)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, McMichael has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
McMichael shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
McMichael
Carlsson
Home
43.0% (298)
42.5% (428)
Away
42.5% (252)
46.4% (399)
By Period
McMichael
Carlsson
P1
46.5%
45.4%
P2
41.1%
39.7%
P3
41.3%
48.5%
Final 5 min
44.0%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |