Connor McMichael vs Leo Carlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McMichael holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McMichael wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
McMichael leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 64.2%
Defensive zone
McMichael 66.7%
Neutral zone
McMichael 60.7%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
McMichael
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
2
(13 meetings)
11
2
McMichael
Carlsson
Last 10: McMichael 9-1 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
5
1
McMichael
Carlsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
5
0
McMichael
Carlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (1,574)
41.0% (1,844)
+2.1%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
42.9% (154)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (167)
35.0% (120)
+3.3%
On penalty kill, McMichael has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. McMichael is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
McMichael shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Home / Away
McMichael
Carlsson
Home
42.6% (976)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
43.3% (904)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
McMichael
Carlsson
P1
43.3%
43.3%
P2
43.2%
36.5%
P3
41.9%
43.2%
OT
75.0%
40.7%
Final 5 min
42.8%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 10:15 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:08 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:14 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:59 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |