Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Bonino 50.8% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 55.9%
Defensive zone
Bonino 90.4%
Neutral zone
Bonino 82.2%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 88.0%
12.0%
88.0%
McMichael
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McMichael
Bonino
Last 7: McMichael 6-1 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
4
1
McMichael
Bonino
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
0
McMichael
Bonino
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
51.8% (305)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
48.5% (101)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, Bonino has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Bonino is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
McMichael
Bonino
Home
42.1% (444)
53.1% (177)
Away
42.8% (428)
49.3% (229)
By Period
McMichael
Bonino
P1
42.5%
55.9%
P2
41.9%
49.6%
P3
42.5%
47.6%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
42.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
50.0%▲
45.5%
42.4%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 1 | 19:10 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:23 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:03 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 08:36 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |