Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Gourde 48.0% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 74.2%
Defensive zone
McMichael 72.8%
Neutral zone
McMichael 70.5%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
McMichael
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McMichael
Gourde
Last 8: McMichael 2-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
3
McMichael
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
3
McMichael
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
48.0% (914)
-4.6%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
54.2% (48)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
43.9% (123)
-13.1%
On power play, Gourde has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
McMichael
Gourde
Home
42.1% (444)
50.2% (512)
Away
42.8% (428)
45.7% (573)
By Period
McMichael
Gourde
P1
42.5%
50.0%
P2
41.9%
45.3%
P3
42.5%
48.6%
OT
100.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 18:11 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 18:29 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 18:20 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:12 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:32 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |