Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Zary wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 42.6% vs Dowd 50.7% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 88.8%
Defensive zone
Zary 58.4%
Neutral zone
Zary 68.6%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Zary
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Zary
Dowd
Last 7: Zary 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Zary
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Zary
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Zary
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (447)
52.4% (6,009)
-10.6%
Power Play
36.2% (58)
56.1% (164)
-19.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Zary is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Zary shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Zary
Dowd
Home
41.3% (293)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
41.0% (212)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Zary
Dowd
P1
40.4%
51.7%
P2
38.6%
50.4%
P3
45.2%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
34.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
41.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 07:35 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 01:40 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 01:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Offensive | Connor Zary |