Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Smith wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Stastny 55.1% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 86.9%
Defensive zone
Stastny 60.4%
Neutral zone
Smith 83.0%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Smith
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Smith
Stastny
Last 10: Smith 3-7 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
1
Smith
Stastny
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
6
Smith
Stastny
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Smith
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
54.6% (10,616)
-13.8%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
59.1% (1,994)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
52.9% (1,119)
-8.5%
On power play, Stastny has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Smith is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (920).
Smith shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Smith
Stastny
Home
42.3% (556)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
39.1% (675)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Smith
Stastny
P1
39.0%
56.3%
P2
42.1%
55.4%
P3
40.2%
53.5%
OT
75.0%
62.9%
Final 5 min
40.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 27, 2018 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 07:34 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 19, 2016 | 1 | 08:50 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 3 | 12:08 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 1 | 15:55 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 3 | 06:52 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 2 | 01:26 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 3 | 02:22 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 12, 2012 | 1 | 04:58 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |