David Gustafsson vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
David Gustafsson holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gustafsson 51.1% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 81.0%
Defensive zone
Gustafsson 64.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Last 10: Gustafsson 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
6
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gustafsson
4
2
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gustafsson
1
0
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (623)
46.1% (11,218)
+6.5%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
53.3% (1,412)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (57)
42.8% (502)
-6.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Gustafsson is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (271).
Gustafsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Home
52.1% (363)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
50.3% (326)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
P1
57.7%
47.4%
P2
45.8%
46.6%
P3
50.2%
46.1%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gustafsson
58.0%▲
50.0%
51.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | David Gustafsson |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | David Gustafsson |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:34 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 06:02 | Defensive | David Gustafsson |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | David Gustafsson |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 12:36 | Defensive | David Gustafsson |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 01:42 | Neutral | David Gustafsson |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 1 | 16:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |