David Gustafsson vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 49.9%). Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gustafsson 50.0% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 79.7%
Defensive zone
Gustafsson 74.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.3%
35.7%
64.3%
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Last 7: Gustafsson 2-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
4
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (180)
49.2% (1,266)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (18)
49.1% (55)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Gustafsson is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Gustafsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Home
52.9% (104)
50.9% (740)
Away
46.8% (94)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
P1
57.1%
50.9%
P2
41.3%
51.8%
P3
51.4%
47.1%
Final 5 min
45.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gustafsson
58.0%▲
50.0%
50.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | David Gustafsson |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | David Gustafsson |