David Gustafsson vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
David Gustafsson holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gustafsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Gustafsson wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gustafsson 53.1% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 65.7%
Defensive zone
Gustafsson 64.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.1%
Result
David Gustafsson favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gustafsson
2
1
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (174)
45.5% (1,190)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (20)
40.0% (30)
+0.0%
On even strength, Gustafsson has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Gustafsson is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Gustafsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
Home
51.5% (103)
47.8% (670)
Away
58.2% (91)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Gustafsson
MacKinnon
P1
60.0%
45.3%
P2
58.9%
48.5%
P3
47.4%
45.0%
Final 5 min
57.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gustafsson
58.0%▲
50.0%
54.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:34 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 06:02 | Defensive | David Gustafsson |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | David Gustafsson |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |