Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Mercer wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 40.0% vs Carter 53.2% (-13.9%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 71.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 55.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 71.5%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Mercer
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Mercer
Carter
Last 10: Mercer 4-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Mercer
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
5
Mercer
Carter
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
1
Mercer
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,403)
53.3% (8,728)
-14.2%
Power Play
41.3% (80)
57.3% (1,554)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (44)
46.3% (1,087)
-5.4%
On power play, Carter has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Mercer is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Mercer shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Home / Away
Mercer
Carter
Home
40.0% (737)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
38.6% (790)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Mercer
Carter
P1
38.0%
53.6%
P2
39.3%
52.8%
P3
41.3%
53.1%
OT
0.0%
56.5%
Final 5 min
39.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 12:53 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 09:31 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 3 | 03:59 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 14:17 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 09:19 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 03:45 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |