Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Grant on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Grant wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Vilardi shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs Vilardi 46.9% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 63.4%
Defensive zone
Grant 92.4%
Neutral zone
Grant 81.2%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 75.6%
75.6%
24.4%
Grant
Vilardi
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Grant
Vilardi
Last 8: Grant 5-3 Vilardi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Grant
Vilardi
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
3
1
Grant
Vilardi
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Grant
Vilardi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Vilardi
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (2,864)
45.8% (1,053)
+7.9%
Power Play
61.7% (175)
51.3% (195)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (922)
48.1% (27)
-2.1%
On power play, Grant has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vilardi shoots right. Grant is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,349).
Grant shoots left. Vilardi is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (934).
Home / Away
Grant
Vilardi
Home
54.3% (1,956)
47.2% (659)
Away
50.2% (2,005)
46.1% (616)
By Period
Grant
Vilardi
P1
51.1%
49.6%
P2
51.5%
43.7%
P3
54.3%
46.8%
OT
35.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 12:53 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 2 | 17:55 | Neutral | Derek Grant |