Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Grant on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Grant wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs Spezza 54.7% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Grant leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 84.9%
Defensive zone
Grant 75.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 59.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Grant
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Grant
Spezza
Last 10: Grant 6-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
3
Grant
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
4
0
Grant
Spezza
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Grant
2
1
Grant
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (2,864)
54.4% (7,990)
-0.7%
Power Play
61.7% (175)
56.8% (1,726)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (922)
52.7% (643)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Grant is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,349).
Grant shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Grant
Spezza
Home
54.3% (1,956)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
50.2% (2,005)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Grant
Spezza
P1
51.1%
55.7%
P2
51.5%
54.4%
P3
54.3%
54.1%
OT
35.7%
51.5%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2021 | 3 | 17:08 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 2 | 02:42 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 2 | 02:08 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 1 | 04:36 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 6, 2018 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 6, 2018 | 3 | 18:06 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Apr 6, 2018 | 3 | 14:49 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 00:53 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Derek Grant |