Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs Dowling 48.9% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 75.1%
Defensive zone
Grant 64.0%
Neutral zone
Dowling 55.6%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Grant
Dowling
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Grant
Dowling
Last 6: Grant 1-5 Dowling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
0
1
Grant
Dowling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
1
4
Grant
Dowling
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Dowling
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (2,864)
49.4% (652)
+4.3%
Power Play
61.7% (175)
40.6% (32)
+21.1%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (922)
33.3% (9)
+12.7%
On power play, Grant has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowling shoots left. Grant is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,612).
Grant shoots left. Dowling is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (455).
Home / Away
Grant
Dowling
Home
54.3% (1,956)
48.2% (301)
Away
50.2% (2,005)
49.2% (392)
By Period
Grant
Dowling
P1
51.1%
47.6%
P2
51.5%
50.4%
P3
54.3%
48.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 02:06 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 2 | 13:24 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 2 | 04:31 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 19:32 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |