Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Grant wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs Barzal 42.2% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 85.6%
Defensive zone
Grant 69.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 65.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 66.7%
33.3%
66.7%
Grant
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Grant
Barzal
Last 8: Grant 3-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
4
Grant
Barzal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
2
0
Grant
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Grant
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (2,864)
41.9% (3,558)
+11.8%
Power Play
61.7% (175)
43.4% (205)
+18.3%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (922)
42.3% (26)
+3.7%
On power play, Grant has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Grant is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,349).
Grant shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,695).
Home / Away
Grant
Barzal
Home
54.3% (1,956)
43.1% (1,893)
Away
50.2% (2,005)
40.9% (1,896)
By Period
Grant
Barzal
P1
51.1%
40.6%
P2
51.5%
44.4%
P3
54.3%
41.0%
OT
35.7%
27.6%
Final 5 min
54.0%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 06:56 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 19:11 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Dec 6, 2018 | 2 | 03:26 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 08:15 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |