Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Grant on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Grant wins 58.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 54.3% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Grant leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Grant 55.8%
Defensive zone
Grant 91.4%
Neutral zone
Grant 91.1%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Grant
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Grant
MacKinnon
Last 10: Grant 8-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Grant
3
1
Grant
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
3
1
Grant
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Grant
3
0
Grant
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (308)
44.7% (1,053)
+11.8%
Power Play
65.3% (49)
36.8% (95)
+28.5%
Penalty Kill
48.5% (136)
65.0% (20)
-16.5%
On power play, Grant has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Grant is 58.9% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Grant shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Grant
MacKinnon
Home
60.3% (257)
49.4% (553)
Away
49.6% (236)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Grant
MacKinnon
P1
54.7%
45.3%
P2
54.0%
42.7%
P3
57.1%
45.1%
OT
0.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
55.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 07:25 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:59 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 14:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:40 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:00 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Grant |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 1 | 14:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 1 | 02:57 | Offensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Grant |