Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.2% vs 54.8%). Grant wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 54.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.0%
Defensive zone
Grant 82.0%
Neutral zone
Grant 60.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Grant
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Grant
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Grant
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
1
0
Grant
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (308)
54.1% (1,117)
+2.4%
Power Play
65.3% (49)
59.8% (296)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
48.5% (136)
34.4% (32)
+14.1%
On penalty kill, Grant has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Grant is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (313).
Grant shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Grant
Hertl
Home
60.3% (257)
54.3% (709)
Away
49.6% (236)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Grant
Hertl
P1
54.7%
51.6%
P2
54.0%
53.6%
P3
57.1%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
55.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Derek Grant |